Agile Program Management for Planning Teams
Introduction
Our organization's forecasting team plays a crucial role in planning operations, delivering essential volume forecasts that drive critical business decisions. The primary output is a detailed weekly forecast covering a multi-week horizon, crucial for medium-term planning. The team possesses the agility to extend these forecasts further, particularly in anticipation of high-volume periods or peak seasons, supporting both core programs and newer initiatives across North America. Forecast accuracy is rigorously measured using established industry metrics, focusing on weighted absolute percentage error (WAPE), while also closely monitoring plan stability and providing clear explanations for any significant forecast adjustments.
Core Workstreams
To deliver consistently accurate and stable forecasts, the team's efforts are channeled into three interconnected workstreams:
- Forecast Generation: The operational core, involving systematic input planning, validation, model utilization, and cross-program coordination.
- Forecast Analytics: Provides tactical analysis of accuracy deviations and strategic deep dives to inform planning.
- Forecast Program/Product Management: Focuses on the continuous improvement and development of forecasting models, tools, and processes.
These workstreams are designed to be mutually reinforcing. The table below outlines these workstreams and the team's targeted resource allocation shift:
Table 1: Forecasting Workstreams & Resource Allocation Goal
| Workstream | Details | Current Allocation (Approx.) | Ideal Allocation (Approx.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Forecast Generation | Weekly forecast publication; Input planning & validation; Coordination; Plan auditing & review; Change communication. | 70% | 40% |
| 2. Forecast Analytics | Accuracy bridges & deep dives for stakeholders; Strategic planning support (e.g., peak planning, scenario analysis). | 20% | 20% |
| 3. Forecast Program & Product | Development and improvement of models, programs, and products via internal efforts or partnership with Science, BI, and Tech teams. | 10% | 40% |
Resource allocation based on planner hours.
The strategic goal is to rebalance efforts, reducing time spent on routine generation (through automation and process improvements) to increase focus on strategic program management and analytics.
Embracing Agile for Scalability and Efficiency
As the team's responsibilities expanded—incorporating new programs, delivering more granular signals, and striving for higher accuracy and stability targets—the existing processes, while effective initially, led to increased complexity and process debt. Recognizing the need for a more structured and scalable approach, the team undertook a value stream mapping exercise. A key outcome was the decision to implement Agile program management, specifically Scrum, to enhance transparency, empower ownership, and foster long-term, fundamental solutions. This methodology provides a systematic framework for improving all three core workstreams.
Consequently, the work has been reorganized into two distinct portfolios based on cadence, work type, and delivery requirements: Plan Generation & Reporting and Program Management & Analytics (PM&A).
Table 2: Agile Program Management Structure
| Workstream | Work Type | Portfolio | Methodology & Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Forecast Generation | Regular, Cadence-based | Plan Gen & Reporting | 1-Week Sprint; Focus: Efficiency, Accuracy, Zero-defect |
| 2. Forecast Analytics | Regular Reporting, Ad-hoc, Strategic | Program Management & Analytics | 2-Week Sprint; Focus: Ad-hoc & Strategic Analysis, Flexibility |
| 3. Forecast Program & Product Mgmt | Ad-hoc (Maintenance), Strategic | Program Management & Analytics | 2-Week Sprint; Focus: Program/Product Improvement, Flexibility |
Plan Generation & Reporting: Precision and Timeliness
The Plan Generation & Reporting workstream operates on intensive, 1-week sprints aligned with the primary planning cycle's refresh cadence. This process is highly complex, involving numerous interdependent steps executed sequentially and relying on a diverse set of internal tools, platforms, and processes. As a critical upstream input for major planning publications, the forecast demands strict adherence to deadlines, as delays can cause significant downstream impacts. Therefore, the primary focus within this workstream is optimizing for efficiency, speed, input accuracy, data integrity, process transparency, and overall quality, minimizing errors from the outset. Addressing issues often requires detailed root cause analysis due to the process complexity. This stream also includes essential reporting activities. While currently resource-intensive, the long-term strategy involves reducing the resource allocation through continuous improvement, automation, and enhancements driven by the PM&A workstream, leveraging Agile principles to ensure quality and early defect resolution.
Program Management & Analytics (PM&A): Strategic Improvement and Collaboration
Distinct from the regular cadence of plan generation, the PM&A workstream focuses on both ad-hoc and strategic initiatives aimed at analysis and program/product enhancement. This includes improving existing tools and programs, managing ongoing maintenance, enhancing forecast models, and driving process improvements like the Agile adoption itself. The analytics component ranges from tactical deep dives requested by internal partners to strategic analyses supporting critical demand planning decisions. The team aims to significantly increase the resource allocation towards PM&A, particularly focusing on scalable solutions in product, program, and model management, while maintaining a strong strategic analytics capability. Success in this area relies heavily on close collaboration with technology and product partner teams, utilizing shared project management platforms as a central hub for scalable and trackable work management.
The PM&A Agile Workflow: Structure and Discipline
The PM&A workstream operates on 2-week sprints, guided by established tenets emphasizing centralized task tracking and a standardized intake process. This ensures visibility, effective workload management, clarity, progress tracking, and transparency.
Diagram Description: PM&A Agile Workflow
The workflow follows a cyclical and iterative process:
- Intake: New tasks enter the system via a standardized intake form.
- Forecast PM&A Backlog: All tasks reside here initially. Tasks undergo Backlog Grooming where they are prioritized, estimated, and assigned.
- Sprint Planning: At the start of a sprint, groomed tasks are selected for the Sprint Backlog based on priority, effort, and capacity. Provisions are made for Urgent Task Injection.
- Sprint Execution (2 Weeks):
- Team members work on tasks in the Sprint Backlog.
- Async Daily Standup: Quick daily check-ins on progress, plans, and blockers.
- Mid-sprint Planning: A check-in to re-calibrate priorities if needed.
- Tasks are moved through stages (e.g., In Progress, Peer Review) towards the Definition of Done.
- Sprint Review: At the sprint's end, completed work is reviewed against goals, and deliverables may be demonstrated.
- Retrospective: The team reflects on the sprint process (what went well, what to improve) and identifies action items. Feedback loops back into Backlog Grooming and future Sprint Planning.
This structured yet flexible workflow allows the team to manage diverse initiatives effectively.
Backlog Management: The PM&A Backlog is the central repository, with tasks progressing through defined stages: Ungroomed, Groomed, In Sprint, Blocked/On-Hold, and Resolved. Grooming ensures tasks are well-defined before entering a sprint.
Sprint Management: Sprints begin with planning, balancing priorities, effort, and resources, including a buffer for urgent tasks. Execution involves daily stand-ups and visual task tracking, with peer reviews for significant changes. Sprints conclude with reviews and retrospectives to assess progress and drive continuous improvement.
Integration and Next Steps
Mechanisms are being explored and implemented to streamline task creation, particularly for work requiring collaboration with partner teams, leveraging automation where possible to reduce duplicate effort. Clear guidelines help differentiate tasks belonging to the routine 'Plan Gen' versus the more strategic 'PM&A' portfolio. Scrum events like planning, reviews, and retrospectives are pragmatically scheduled to optimize meeting time. The team is embarking on a phased onboarding process to adopt these new Agile practices. This enthusiastic adoption of Agile principles promises to enhance the forecasting team's efficiency, scalability, and ability to deliver high-impact results.